What is the life of the information technology industry today and what are the prospects for its development in the coming years? To answer this question, we have studied the analytical reports of global research companies in various segments of the IT market – from servers to software and services
Like the IT industry as a whole, the global server market demonstrates positive dynamics of development from year to year. According to analysts at DRAMeXchange (a division of TrendForce), about 12.4 million servers were sold in 2018. This is a 5 percent increase from the previous year. The largest manufacturers for the year were Dell EMC, HPE/New H3C Group and Inspur, whose market shares were 16.7%, 15.1% and 7.8% respectively.
DRAMeXchange experts predict that this year the growth rate of the global server market will slow down. It is expected that in 2019, the shipment of servers of different types will increase by approximately 3.9% compared to last year. At the same time, in 2020, according to analysts, the world server market will reach a peak. At the end of the first half of 2019, the industry leader, according to the forecasts of DRAMeXchange, will be Dell EMC with a share of 15.8%. In second place will be HPE/New H3C Group with a result of 13.7%. Will close the top three leading players Inspur with 7.5%. In addition, the top five will include Huawei and Lenovo with results of 6.7% and 5.7% respectively.
It is expected that more than half of the industry (55%) at the end of this year will take corporate-level servers. Next year, this figure will fall to 51%. Another approximately 37% will fall on hyperconvergent systems (software and hardware complexes that combine computing resources, data warehouses and virtualization systems in one module). In 2020, their share will rise to 40%. In addition, DRAMeXchange forecasts that the share of servers for the telecommunications industry will increase from 3 to 5 percent over the next year. Demand for server hardware will be driven by the rapid development of cloud platforms, new e-Commerce services, and the Internet of things. In addition, innovations in artificial intelligence (AI) and fifth-generation communication systems (5G) will contribute to the growth of server supplies.
The market of semiconductor products
According to Gartner, in 2018, the global semiconductor market increased in monetary terms by 12.5% and reached 474.6 billion us dollars. The largest supplier in this area was the South Korean giant Samsung with revenue of $ 73.6 billion and a share of 15.5%. In second place is Intel: last year, the Corporation shipped semiconductor products for $66.3 billion, taking as a result 14% of the global industry. SK Hynix closes the top three with revenues of $36.2 billion. this company controls 7.6% of the global semiconductor market. In addition, the top ten included Micron Technology, Broadcom, Qualcomm, Texas Instruments, STMicroelectronics, Western Digital and NXP Semiconductors. Overall, the top 10 companies hold 58.8% of the global semiconductor market in monetary terms. If the current market growth rate continues, there is every reason to assume that this year the industry will cross the symbolic milestone of $500 billion.
The market for data storage systems
The largest supplier in this segment of the IT market is Dell, according to the analytical company International Data Corporation (IDC) controlling in monetary terms 20.6% of the global market of corporate data storage systems. In the second place it appears HP/H3C New Group with a score of 18%. This is followed by NetApp, which accounted for 5.8% in the fourth quarter of 2018. In total, $14.5 billion worth of storage was shipped in the last quarter of last year, with the total capacity of storage and storage devices delivered in three months reaching 92.5 Ebytes.
According to the forecasts of IDC analysts, the enterprise-level storage industry will continue to develop dynamically, and as a result of the rapid growth in the volume of information generated by 2023, the installed capacity of data storage facilities on a global scale will more than double compared to last year. This, in particular, will contribute to mobile 5G-networks, the development of which will lead to the emergence of qualitatively new interactive services and provoke a boom in the Internet of things.
Cloud infrastructure market
Another dynamically developing segment of the information technology market, the success of which is evidenced by the research data of Canalys. It is reported that in 2018, the volume of the industry grew by 46% and exceeded $80 billion. As for the balance of power, the leading position on a global scale is the platform Amazon Web Services (AWS), whose share at the end of the year amounted to almost a third of the market — 32%. “Silver” went to the cloud Microsoft Azure with a result of 17%. In third place is the Google Cloud platform, which controls 8% of the market. Alibaba Cloud infrastructure followed with 4 percent. Thus, the four leading companies collectively control 61% of the global cloud infrastructure industry.
The Canalys study also says that Google Cloud and Alibaba Cloud platforms are currently showing the greatest growth dynamics — 94 and 92% year-on-year, respectively. The result is Microsoft Azure-plus 82%, Amazon Web Services-plus 47%. According to experts, in the near future, the global cloud market will continue to expand steadily. This is due to the rapid development of virtualization systems, artificial intelligence technologies, big data analysis and changes in the business model of many companies and enterprises. Cisco Systems estimates that by 2021, almost 94% of companies will move their business processes to the cloud. At the same time, 73% of workloads will be on public clouds (in 2016 it was 58%), and the share of private clouds will decrease from 42 to 27 percent.
Information security market
Cybersecurity solutions and business protection from digital threats make a significant contribution to the development of the IT market. According to forecasts of International Data Corporation, this year the volume of the industry in monetary terms will overcome the symbolic milestone of $100 billion and will amount to 103.1 billion US dollars. This will correspond to an increase of 9.4% compared to the previous year (the presented data take into account the costs in the field of software, hardware solutions of various classes and related services). In the coming years, it is expected to further increase costs in the field of information security. In particular, the CAGR (average annual growth rate in compound interest) for the period up to 2022 is projected at 9.2%. As a result, the volume of the IB market will reach approximately $133.8 billion by the mentioned date.
According to Analys, network security tools are the most popular in the field of is, followed by vulnerability detection systems and management tools, security solutions in the field of e-mail and web platforms, products for protecting workstations, servers and data. The largest players in the market are Cisco Systems, Palo Alto Networks, Check Point Software Technologies, Symantec and Fortinet.
The relevance of the use of is solutions in the corporate environment is evidenced by the impressive financial losses of companies from cyber attacks. Thus, according to Sberbank estimates, in 2018 alone, organizations around the world lost approximately 1.5 trillion us dollars due to the actions of network attackers. This year, this amount will grow to $2.5 trillion, that is, it will rise more than one and a half times. By 2022, according to Sberbank, the losses of companies from cybercriminal attacks will reach $8 trillion, that is, will jump five times compared to last year.
Big data Analytics market
Big data Analytics (BDA) is becoming one of the most popular tasks in today’s business and in the future will be widely used in almost all industries. According to IDC expectations, this year the BDA market volume in monetary terms will approach $200 billion and will amount to $189.1 billion. If this forecast is justified, the growth relative to 2018 will be at the level of 12%. The largest segment of the big data and business intelligence industry this year will be IT services with revenue of $77.5 billion and software will account for another $67.2 billion. Supply hardware solutions will be in terms of money $23.7 billion Contribution of business services is projected to reach $20.7 billion
In the coming years, the big data and business intelligence market is expected to see a further increase in spending. Thus, the CAGR in the period from 2018 to 2022, according to IDC experts, will be 13.2%. As a result, the global industry will reach $274.3 billion over the next three years. geographically, the United States will remain the largest region in terms of BDA costs.
Another bright trend in the IT market is the rapid development of services using machine learning technologies and artificial intelligence systems based on neural networks. According to International Data Corporation, in 2018, the cost of AI systems globally was approximately us $ 24.9 billion. This year, the industry is expected to grow almost one and a half times-by 44%. As a result, the global market will reach $35.8 billion in the period up to 2022, the CAGR is projected at 38%. Thus, in 2022, the volume of the industry will reach $79.2 billion, that is, it will increase more than twice in comparison with the current year.
If we consider the market of artificial intelligence systems by sector, the largest segment this year, according to IDC forecasts, will be retail – $5.9 billion. the second place will be the banking sector with costs of $5.6 billion. it is Noted that the software in the field of AI this year will have $13.5 billion.Costs in the field of hardware solutions, primarily servers, will amount to $12.7 billion. in Addition, companies around the world will continue to invest in related services. In the next ten years, the most dynamic growth of this market is expected in North America, as this region is the center of development of innovative technologies, production processes, infrastructure, disposable income, etc.As for Russia, in our country, the priority areas of application of AI will be transport and the financial sector, industry and telecommunications. In the longer term, almost all sectors will be affected, including public administration and the system of international exchange of goods and services.
Blockchain technology market
No less positive analysts look at the developing blockchain ecosystem, which already covers various superplatforms, applications and services. According to IDC estimates, in 2018, global costs in the field of blockchain solutions amounted to approximately $ 1.5 billion. this year, it is expected to almost double: costs will increase by 88.7% and reach $2.9 billion. the largest segment of the blockchain technology market by the end of this year will be the financial sector. Analysts believe that the costs in this area will be at the level of $ 1.1 billion. From a geographical point of view, the leader will be the United States with expenditures of $ 1.1 billion, followed by Western Europe And China with a result of $674 million and $319 million, respectively, the average Annual growth rate in compound interest (CAGR) in the period up to 2022, according to experts IDC, will be an impressive 76%. As a result, by this date, the volume of the industry will reach $12.4 billion.
Internet of things market
Business is showing growing interest in technological solutions based on the Internet of things (IOT), and this has a positive impact on the development of the industry. According to IDC estimates, at least until 2022, the IoT market will demonstrate steady growth and its volume will reach $1.2 trillion by the mentioned date. It is predicted that in 2025, 38.6 billion different devices will be connected to the Internet, and in 2030 this figure will exceed the landmark mark of 50 billion. For comparison, as of the end of 2018, the number of IoT devices was estimated at approximately 22 billion (Strategy Analytics data).
If we consider the individual segments of the IoT industry, the highest growth rates will show the consumer sector, insurance and health care. At the same time, transport and manufacturing will remain the leading industries for investments in the Internet of things due to the large number of installed end devices and the demand for solutions for vehicle management, transport monitoring and production asset management. IDC predicts that in 2022, costs in each of these IoT segments will exceed $150 billion. Already this year, IoT modules with support for mobile communication of the fifth generation will begin to appear. It is 5G networks that are expected to contribute to the rapid development of the Internet of things.
The development of the Internet of things will entail an increase in the cost of securing IoT devices. Research by Gartner shows that during 2016-2018, almost a fifth of organizations around the world faced at least one cyber threat related to the Internet of things. In the foreseeable future, experts believe, the number of attacks on IoT devices will only grow. If last year the cost of protecting the infrastructure of the Internet of things was estimated at about $ 1.51 billion, this year the cost will increase to $1.93 billion, in 2020 will be at the level of $2.46 billion, and in 2021 will exceed three billion US dollars. It is noted that the main problem of the Internet of things are outdated firmware devices: at best, updates are released with significant delays, at worst — not released at all (sometimes the possibility of an update is not even technically provided). As a result, many IoT devices are hacked using trivial methods, such as vulnerabilities in the web interface. Almost all such vulnerabilities are critical and actively used by attackers.
The market for network equipment
The undisputed leader in this area is Cisco Systems. At the end of 2018, the share of this company in the segment of Ethernet switches was 52.8%, corporate WLAN equipment-44.7%, routers-38.8%. The top five network equipment vendors also include Huawei, Arista Networks, Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) and Juniper.
According to IDC estimates, in the last quarter of 2018, revenue from the sale of Ethernet switches globally amounted to $7.8 billion, an increase of 12.7% compared to the fourth quarter of 2017. Growth for the year as a whole was recorded at 9.1 %: the result — $28.1 billion in the segment of enterprise-class routers, quarterly revenue was $4.6 billion, which is 15.6% more compared to the last quarter of 2017. The growth in the last year as a whole was not so significant-1.8%, and revenue reached $15.5 billion. If we consider only the corporate WLAN-sector, here quarterly deliveries rose year-on-year by 10.3%, reaching $1.7 billion. Growth for the year was at the level of 7.1%: the result – $6.1 billion.
5g infrastructure market
The introduction of mobile communication technologies of the fifth generation is at the initial stage, but analysts have already given their forecasts and are convinced that 5G will become one of the drivers of the global IT market. According to IDC, in 2018, the volume of the designated industry in monetary terms amounted to about $528 million, but by 2022, experts believe, this figure will reach $26 billion, and the value of the CAGR in this period will be an impressive 118 percent.
The market of 5G-infrastructures will develop rapidly. Ericsson predicts that by the end of 2024, more than 40% of the population will live in the coverage area of fifth-generation networks, and the number of connections to such networks will reach 1.5 billion. 5G technology will become the communication standard in the near future, and the construction of the appropriate infrastructure will lead to the emergence of qualitatively new services. It is emphasized that the pace of deployment of 5G on a global scale will be higher than that of mobile technologies of previous generations. The leaders in 5G in the coming years will be North America and northeast Asia. By the end of 2024, 5G networks will account for 55% of mobile connections in North America and 43% in northeast Asia. For comparison, in Western Europe, only 30% of mobile connections will be based on 5G technology.
IT market as a whole
If we sum up these segments of the IT market and consider the industry as a whole, its volumes in 2018, according to Gartner, amounted to approximately 3.65 trillion us dollars (growth in annual terms — at the level of 3.9%). This year, according to analysts ‘ forecasts, total IT costs will reach $ 3.77 trillion. Thus, the market will show a 3.2 percent increase. In total spending on systems for data centers will be $210 billion enterprise-class Software will bring $431 billion costs in the hardware segment are estimated at $679 billion. The largest segment will remain the communications services sector with projected revenue of $1.42 trillion. Another approximately $ 1.03 trillion will bring IT services. In 2020, the market is expected to grow further: its volume is expected to reach $3.88 trillion. No less optimistic forecasts are voiced by IDC, whose experts expect the global IT market to grow to $4.6 trillion by 2022. Impressive figure! Let’s see if the forecasts of analysts, whose expectations may be spoiled by the recently escalated trade war between the United States and China, the consequences of which can seriously hit the global IT market, will come true.